Is Ron DeSantis’s campaign over yet?

After the past few months, it’s hard not to wonder. His poll numbers have plummeted. Potential donors seem skeptical. experts have disputed if I should even run.

But now that he’s finally announcing his presidential bid, which is expected later today, it’s worth reflecting on his path back into the race. Regardless, Ron DeSantis could still be the next Republican nominee.

That may seem hard to imagine, but luck can turn amazingly fast in presidential primaries. There are still more than six months until the Iowa caucuses, and there will be plenty of opportunities for him to right his course.

In the end, the factors that made Mr. DeSantis formidable earlier in the year might prove more significant than the stumbles and mistakes that have hampered him recently. The damage is not yet irreparable.

Of course, just because he can mount a comeback doesn’t mean he’ll be back. His campaign’s decision to announce his offer on Twitter tonight misses out on a rare opportunity to be televised live on multiple networks in favor of a feature, Twitter Spaces, that I don’t even know how to use as a frequent Twitter user. And even if his campaign is ultimately run differently than it has been so far, it’s not clear that even a perfectly run Republican campaign would defeat Donald J. Trump, at least if the former president survives the various legal challenges of politically unscathed. he.

But if you’re tempted to write off Mr. DeSantis, you might want to think again. The history of primary elections is littered with candidates who are dropped, only to emerge in the race. Unknown candidates like Herman Cain briefly become favorites. Early candidates like Joe Biden and John McCain are thrown out, then come back to win. Even Barack Obama spent six months fighting and chasing an “inevitable” Hillary Clinton by double digits.

Perhaps one day we will say something similar about Mr. DeSantis’s candidacy. As with the candidates who ultimately came back to victory, the strengths that made Mr. DeSantis look so promising after the midterms are still present today. He still has unusually wide appeal across the Republican Party. His favorability ratings remain strong: stronger that from Mr. Trump – even though his position against Mr. Trump has deteriorated in face-to-face voting. He is still defined by issues, such as fighting “wake up” and coronavirus restrictions, which also have wide appeal across his party. If this was enough to make him a strong contender in January, there’s a reason he could be again.

While it’s easy to see Mr. DeSantis’ decline in recent months as a sign of deep weakness, the volatility in the polls can also be interpreted as a large pool of voters open to both candidates. They may be prone to teetering one way or the other, depending on how the political winds are blowing.

Mr. DeSantis’ strategy so far this year may also have increased the likelihood of big changes. As I wrote last week, there are two theories to defeat the former president: Trumpism without Trump and a reinvigorated conservative alternative to Trump. Of the two, the proto-DeSantis campaign can be more easily interpreted as a version of Trumpism without Trump. If his campaign has done anything, it’s reduced any disagreements with Trump, even to the point of failure. Mr. DeSantis hasn’t really made an explicit or implicit case against the former president. Perhaps worse, he hasn’t hit back after being attacked.

This combination of options has helped establish an unusually rapid decline in support for Mr. DeSantis. After all, the only thing that unifies a hypothetical Trumpism without Trump’s coalition is opposition to Mr. Trump and the prospect of defeating him. if you don’t attack him and you’re losing to him, then you’re not saying or doing the only two things that can hold your followers together.

The evaporating base for Mr. DeSantis’ support has played out subtly differently on two different fronts. On the right, conservative voters open to someone other than Trump, however, have returned to the side of the former president. What kind of conservative wants trumpism without force? Toward the center, the many relatively moderate establishment Republicans and neoconservatives who yearn for a ticket opposed to Trumpism, not just the conduct of the man himself, have withheld crucial support for DeSantis and flirted with other options, from Chris Christie to Chris Sununu.

But if the DeSantis campaign can reinvigorate the case for his Trumpism without Trump’s candidacy, he could quickly win back many of the voters who backed him a few months ago. In fact, it’s even possible that the current media narrative and low expectations are setting the stage for a DeSantis resurgence.

Imagine how he would feel if he launched a vigorous and successful attack on Mr. Trump after all these months on the defensive. What might otherwise have been a routine sparring match would be imbued with far greater meaning, unleashing months of pent-up anxiety among his followers. What if part of the reason he’s announcing his candidacy on Twitter is to mock Truth Social? As silly as it sounds, successfully defeating Trump could brings his candidacy to life, and the media loves a comeback story.

A major factor keeping Mr. DeSantis’ path open is that, thus far, none of the possible moderate alternatives to him have gained a foothold in the race. If they did, it would be They are being denied by moderate and neoconservative voters who supported the likes of John Kasich and Marco Rubio in the last primaries. He would basically become another Ted Cruz.

But for now, DeSantis is the only viable non-Trump candidate in town. As long as that is true, he will have every chance of winning back among voters who would prefer someone other than Trump, if there is a market for someone other than Trump.

In the end, whether there is enough demand for a Trump alternative may be the bigger question than whether DeSantis can resurrect his campaign. With Trump already commanding more than 50 percent support in the polls, defeating Trump might require a few breaks, like the possibility that his legal challenges are worse than we might assume. It might also require a victory for DeSantis in Iowa to break Trump’s grip on a crucial segment of the party, just as the midterms seemed to temporarily break Trump’s base last winter.

But even if Trump is a clear favorite, it’s easy to see how DeSantis can at least make this race competitive again. When he is able to focus on his own problems, he has a distinctive political brand with rare appeal in a divided Republican Party. With expectations this low, the foundations for a recovery might even be in place. It has happened before.