Doesn’t it feel like everything is breaking down in President Biden’s way lately?
His main rival, whom Biden already beat in 2020 and whom the Democrats, in a sense, beat again in the midterms, faces criminal charges and yet is currently cruising toward the nomination anyway.
The economy, which has teetered on the brink of recession for two years with rising inflation and falling real wages, appears to be on the way to a Soft landingwith inflation falling, real wages rising, and the stock market recovering.
The backlash against the “wake-up,” an issue that Republicans seemed most keen to exploit in the Biden era, appears to have subsided significantly, either because Donald J. Trump has sucked up much of the oxygen; conservatives have overreached; or the liberals have reined in their excesses and returned to the defense after the conservatives went on the offensive.
It’s probably too early to expect these recent events to lift Biden’s approval ratings, which remain low. mired in the low 40s. But if these trends persist, many of the explanations for Biden’s low approval ratings will quickly become less credible. If his numbers don’t start to move in the coming months, apparently with the wind in his favor, more serious questions about where he stands heading into the 2024 election will quickly begin to arise.
Up to this point in his presidency, it has been fairly easy to attribute his low ratings to economic conditions. Yes, unemployment was low and growth was steady. But inflation rose, real incomes fell, stocks tumbled in a bear market, a recession seemed imminent, and voters could see the signs of a struggling economy everywhere, including supply chain tightness and onerous interest rates.
It’s fair to question whether economic conditions have really been as bad as voters say, but it’s also fair to acknowledge that these kinds of conditions can breed a pessimistic electorate. Two bouts of inflation reminiscent of today’s post-pandemic economy—the postwar economies of 1920 and 1946—were catastrophic for the ruling party, even as unemployment remained low by the standards of the time.
Historically, it can feel as if almost all major political turmoil came with inflation, whether the great malaise in Great Britain, the red summer in the US or even the hyperinflation of Weimar Germany. If bread prices are high can be argued Having helped spark the French Revolution, it’s easy to accept that 9 percent inflation (at its peak in June 2022) could hurt Biden’s approval ratings by five to ten percentage points.
But if inflation has been what has slowed Biden down, it’s hard to say it should hold him back for much longer. Annual inflation fell to 3 percent last month and real incomes have finally started get up. The stock market, one of the most visible and consistent measures of the economy for millions of Americans, has risen about 15 percent in the past six months. The University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index rose 13 percent in July, reaching the highest level since September 2021: the first full month that Mr. Biden’s approval ratings were below 50 percent.
There is another factor that should help Biden’s approval rating: the start of a new phase of the Republican primary campaign, including the debates. As Republican candidates become more prominent in American life, voters may begin to judge Biden against the alternatives, not just in isolation. Some of the Democratic-leaning voters who currently disapprove of Mr. Biden might start to see the Biden presidency in a different light.
Perhaps in part for these reasons, this is the time when many presidents see their position change. The approval ratings of Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton were clearly on the rise at this stage of the election cycle, although both were still below 50 percent, as voters began to see and feel an improvement in the economy.
We’ll see in the coming months if Biden’s ratings start to rise. You wouldn’t expect it to happen quickly: Reagan’s and Clinton’s ratings rose less than a point a month between about now and their re-election. Barack Obama’s ratings rose at a similar, if slightly slower, rate from their post-debt ceiling crisis nadir a little later in the year.
But even if it’s not quick, I expect Mr. Biden’s ratings to start rising if these conditions hold. The current era may be polarized, but there are plenty of persuasible and even Democratic-leaning voters, who disapprove of his performance, available to come back to him.
If the economy continues to improve and yet his ratings remain stagnant in the coming months, tough questions will gradually begin to emerge about the true source of his weakness, including the possibility that his age, by fueling the perception of a weak president, prevents voters from seeing him as effective, regardless of his actual record.